Strategic Thinking

Way Of Strategy

Know the smallest things and the biggest things, the shallowest things and the deepest things. As if it were a straight road mapped out on the ground... These things cannot be explained in detail. From one thing, know ten thousand things.
When you attain the Way Of Strategy there will not be one thing you cannot see.
You must study hard. - Miyamoto Musashi

The Way Of Strategy then is like a way of living.

Essentially approaching everything with a strategic mindset. Strategic mindfulness.

Truth and Realism.

Seek understanding - Knowledge, information, experience, and wisdom.

Leaven Doctrine

Divide and rule, a sound motto.

Unite and lead, a better one.

- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

It's easy to think this way.

Take all of that Art Of War / Machiavellian / Darth Sidious kind of strategic thinking...
And basically just do the opposite.

They use killing – you use saving.

They use destruction – you build and create.

They use punishment. You create paths for reconciliation and reconstruction.

They divide. You unite.

They lead through puppets. You stand in front.

They rule through fear. You show that there's a better way and inspire.

Basically think exactly the same way as all of those conqueror's, manipulators, and super villain's in the exact opposite direction.

Example : If lies defeat truths because the lies are more convenient.
Then you simply need to wield truths that are more convenient than the lies.

Doctrine Definition

Doctrine is a guide for standardizing the methodology of how to approach preparing for and carrying out campaigns, operations, and actions.

Rather than a set of rules and checklists - it attempts to be definitive enough to guide activity, yet versatile enough to accommodate an extreme variety of situations.

The point is to encourage initiative and creative thinking while also improving cooperation and fostering readiness by establishing a common lexicon as well as common methods and thought processes.

Leaven Definition

Noun – A pervasive influence that modifies something or transforms it for the better.

Verb – Permeate or modify or transform something for the better.

Why Leaven?

I was pretty disappointed to learn that the English language doesn't really have an opposite equivalent of the word "insidious". There's no word to describe being insidious, but good. Well, sort of.

At first I was almost MORE disappointed to find what I was looking for, only for it to end up being so lame. But ya know what? It's grown on me, I like it.

Also Leavening Agent sounds like a fantastic job title as far as I'm concerned.

Lexicon

Rules

There are only 3 rules in Strategy. Everything else is a guideline.

Rule #1 Know yourself. The more the better.

Rule #2 Know your enemy / problems / obstacles / what you’re up against

Rule #3 Always keep Goals / Objectives / Purposes in mind

Guidelines

Seek understanding. Avoid rigid knowledge.

Reading strategic texts is great for expanding your horizons and mentally practising what you already know. However, the "strategic mindset" should be your true goal, not memorizing specifics.

More than one strategist has written that you should always pursue once your opponent begins to collapse, so that they don’t have a chance to recover.

This might seem wise were it not for that mindset being the very thing that allowed Steppe Nomads to beat sedentary armies for literally hundreds of years using a single tactic - "the feigned retreat".

It’s also what allowed Hannibal to use the Romans strength against themselves to create a full envelopment of the Romans at Cannae.

And those aren’t even the only examples of pursuits gone wrong.

What I am saying is even the best of the greatest strategists all had one fateful flaw in being evaluated during the present - they were all limited by the truths of their very small worlds. Running your enemy down at the point of defeat was a ‘truth’ of some of their worlds. But it’s not a ‘truth’ of strategy as a whole.

On Power :

Power is nothing more than the ability to organize, motivate, and utilize other people.

On Planning

“Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” – Dwight D. Eisenhower

So - Goals. Doctrine. Planning. Adaptability.

"And for the record – I always think things through. But my plans haven't exactly worked. So this time I'm playing it by ear. So there." - Sokka.

Foundations & Fundamentals

“Always aim for a killing blow, everything else is a waste of time and energy.”
- Colonel Sawyer

Always look for the and break things down to their foundations & fundamentals.

There is a difference between taking shortcuts and setting yourself up so you simply don't have to do as much.

“Never spend more for an acquisition than you have to.” - Quark

When I look to solve a problem I always aim to solve the root of the problem, rather than the surface level symptoms, which will always reappear if not properly dealt with.

Doing things in the correct order means lightening the overall work load. Not skipping it.

To teach yourself to do this you need to learn to talk to yourself productively and ask yourself questions.

Creating Your Own Luck

Proactive strategic thinking. Plant seeds early - harvest later.

More Actions = More events
You need to take actions in order to create the opportunity for opportunities to emerge.

Turn Disadvantages into Advantages

Look for opportunities to turn disadvantages into advantages. To turn mistakes into wins.

Doesn’t happen all the time or we’d all do it naturally but keep it in somewhere in the back of your mind – you never know when it might come in handy.

Similarly disrupting enemy plans is one thing – using them against them or for yourself is even more fun.

On Surrendering

“The victor is not victorious if the vanquished does not consider himself so.” – Quintus Ennius (Rome)

“Three strikes and you are NOT out. There is ALWAYS one more thing you can do.” ― Hal Moore

“While there's life, there's hope.” Marcus Tullius Cicero

“Never give up. Never surrender.” – Galaxy Quest

On judging one's self realistically -

Most folks are way too hard on themselves.

Except the ones that should be.

Bad people never worry if they are good enough.

80/20 Guideline

For many outcomes, roughly 80% of consequences come from 20% of causes.

So prioritize energy, time, and efforts towards the strategically most important directions.

Best ways to learn

Those who do not learn (and understand ; able to make use of) history are doomed to repeat it.

The best way to learn is not from your own mistakes.

The best way to learn is from other people’s mistakes!

That way you can avoid spending an entire lifetime of mistakes just to learn how to stop making them.

Which is why learning about history can actually have genuine value. History doesn't really repeat but it almost always rhymes.

Leadership

“If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together.” Credited as an anonymous African Proverb.

“Eric, the only way to really learn about leadership is to lead.”

“I don't even know where to start.”

“Well that part is easy -
Find out what the people really need.
And then look for the safest and best way to get it for them.
From there – everything else follows.”
- Captain Hunt

As a Leader if your plan succeeds, it's because of their hard work and execution of your plan. And if the plan fails, it's because you didn't come up with the right plan.

It's always their success - and your fault. Always.

However! You only truly fail as a Leader if you fail to learn from it, to make sure that it will go better next time.

10 Rules For Being An Exceptional Leader From Marcus Aurelius

1. Understand that people exist to help one another.

2. Be mindful of others’ humanity.

3. Realize that many mistakes are the result of ignorance.

4. Do not overly exalt yourself.

5. Avoid quick judgments of others’ actions.

6. Maintain self-control.

7. Recognize that others can hurt your only if you let them.

8. Know that pessimism can easily overtake you.

9. Practice kindness.

10. Do not expect bad people to exempt you from their destructive ways.

Five dangerous faults which may affect a general -

Recklessness, which leads to destruction

Cowardice, which leads to capture. At best, a lack of progress.

A hasty temper, which can be taken advantage of by your adversary

Overly concerned with the shame of defeat and honor of victory.

Over solicitude for his men, which exposes him to worry and trouble

Levels of Scale

1. Grand Strategy

Grand Strategy refers to the utilization of all capabilities and resources through high level and long term planning.

2. Doctrine

Serves as a conceptual framework uniting all three levels of planning under Grand Strategy.

3. Operational

Operational is the bridge between details of tactic and goals of strategy.

4. Tactical / Action

Applies locally and immediately to secure objectives defined as part of the strategy.

Grand Strategy

Grand Strategy is the long-term planning pursued at the highest levels.

“Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat." - Sun Tzu

Center of Gravity

Center(s) of Gravity - All must each know their own purpose and the overall goal / end-state - the point at which all energies should be directed.

Objective (Direct every military operation towards a clearly defined, decisive, and attainable objective).

Desired Goal // End-state

Convergence: "convergence is the goal-seeking process that guides actions and effects."

Convergence is the key feature, which, while it can be distributed, causes swarming units to coordinate their actions, apply force, and know when to stop applying force.

Decision-making occurs in a recurring cycle of observe-orient-decide-act.

An entity (whether an individual or an organization) that can process this cycle quickly, observing and reacting to unfolding events more rapidly than an opponent, can thereby "get inside" the opponent's decision cycle and gain the advantage – Boyd

The Tipping Point

“The tipping point is that magic moment when an idea, trend, or social behavior crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire.” - Malcolm Gladwell

Positive ends

The possibility of taking advantage of a new security environment to create conditions for long-term peace – Wass de Czege

Art vs. Science

Science has a correct answer, art doesn't.

Thus the proper conduct of strategy is to artistically apply known information in a sea of fogged unknowns and uncertainties.

Fog Of War

"War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the truth."

— Carl von Clausewitz

The fog of war is the uncertainty in situational awareness experienced by participants in operations.

Precision and certainty are unattainable goals, hence modern doctrine suggests a trade off of precision and certainty for speed and agility.

Information-Centric Strategy

Information is a potential source of power. Seek to translate an information advantage into a strategic advantage.

Diplomacy

Winning without fighting is the supreme victory.

Diplomatic Levels:
Fog of War / Unrevealed / Shrouded
Hostile
Neutral
Non-Aggression
Peace Treaty
Trade
Cooperation
Diplomacy
Alliance
Union

Diplomatic Strategies:

Containment | Deterrence | Avoidance | Buffer

Befriend | Cooperation | Support | Coalitions & Alliances

Soul Warfare – Social Influence

Economy Of Force

Realize (decide on) Goals.

Coordinate and direct all resources, means, and assets towards the expansion, improvement or preservation of the end-state, usually through the completion of specific goals.

Secondary Objectives should be supportive of Primary Objectives - If not they should be separated.

Total War

Use all (in our case - legal) means at our disposal. There is no one singular solution and our problems must be attacked from all directions, with all means – the obvious and less obvious.

“Subutai's first chance at independent command came in 1197 during action against the Merkit, when he was 22 years old. Subutai's role was to act as the vanguard and defeat one of the Merkit camps at the Tchen River. Subutai refused Genghis Khan's offer for extra elite troops, and instead traveled to the Merkit camp alone, posing as a Mongol deserter. Subutai managed to convince the Merkits that the main Mongol army was far away, and they were in no danger. As a result, the Merkit lowered their guard and limited their patrols, allowing the Mongols to easily surprise and encircle the Merkits, capturing two generals.[16] ...”

He created an advantage and conditions that otherwise wouldn’t have existed at all using rather non-standard means by thinking proactively.

Operations

Operational level is the bridge that connects the tactical details with the strategic goals.

Subordinate processes here include defining objectives and centers of gravity, but excessive dependence on planning can create false security.

Application

Operational art comprises four essential elements: time, space, means and purpose.

Compounding factors, such as the opponent's actions, create further ambiguity.

Operations research is often concerned with determining the maximum (of profit, performance, or yield) and minimum (of loss, risk, or cost) of an objective.

Operational Planning:

Target acquisition / Goal

Intelligence / Reconnaissance

Preparations / Training

Logistics

Staging / Positioning

Campaign Order:

Planning

Executing

Controlling

Concluding

Scale of Operations

The more specific and detailed we get into military strategy then the more metaphorical and abstract it is to apply it to life strategy.

Someday I’ll ‘translate’ more but this is where it ends for now.

I almost didn’t include even this. It’s won’t be useful for many but it might help someone manage working on a large project or series of related projects.

Operations can be classified by their scale and scope and by their wider impact.
The scope of operations can be:

Theater: an operation over a large, sometimes continental, area of operation with general goals that encompass areas of consideration outside the military, such as the economic and political impact.

Some manner of independence (not just difference) from other efforts.

Theatres are both pieces of the whole and also small whole's complete in themselves.

Campaign: either a subset of the theatre of operation, or a more limited geographic and operational strategic commitment, and need not represent total national commitment to a conflict, or have broader goals outside the military impact.

The term campaign applies to significant strategy plans incorporating a series of inter-related operations, related in time and space and aimed towards a single, specific, strategic objective.

A campaign may include a single battle, but more often it comprises a number of battles over a protracted period of time or a considerable distance, but within a single theatre of operations or delimited area.

Battle: subset of a campaign that will have specific military goals and geographic objectives, as well as clearly defined use of forces.

Engagement: a tactical combat event or contest for a specific area or objective by actions of distinct units.

Strike: a single attack, upon a specified target. This often forms part of a broader engagement.

My favourite “Maxims of Maximally Effective Mercenaries” :

20. If you’re not willing to shell your own position, you’re not willing to win.

23. The company mess and friendly fire should be easier to tell apart.

36. When the going gets tough, the tough call for close air support.

37. There is no ‘overkill’. There is only “open fire” and “reload”.

54. The best way to win a one-on-one fight is to be the third to arrive.

64. An ounce of sniper is worth a pound of suppressing fire.

70. Failure is not an option – it is mandatory. The option is whether or not to let failure be the last thing you do.

Up Next

Game Theory, probably.